|
—
|
We believe Adrenalin is viewed as the best-in-class third-party back office VOD software architecture. In three years, SeaChange’s next-generation software has been selected by about 50 companies, covering roughly 50 million subscribers. We believe SeaChange’s future cash flow stream is fairly predictable as its software is rolled out to these subscribers over the next several years. As well, we estimate an additional 30 million subscribers will be added to Adrenalin’s footprint. Many of these potential subscribers are with customers still using SeaChange’s Axiom software, which is 15 years old. Operational stress on an antiquated system will increasingly force customers to upgrade.
|
|
—
|
We believe the adoption of SeaChange’s Nucleus home-gateway software platform by Liberty Global, the world’s largest cable operator, illustrates the technological strength of this product offering. Liberty Global’s recent public comments in its second quarter conference call underscore its excitement and commitment to rolling out Nucleus more broadly throughout its subscriber base.
|
|
—
|
Industry contacts have commented on the elegance and strength of the Adrenalin back-office and Nucleus home-gateway combination. The traction that this dual-offering is gaining among providers, and SeaChange’s reputation as an expert in the emerging industry standard RDK protocol, should be recognized in the marketplace with additional design wins. This belief was underscored in our industry discussions at last week’s Cable-Tec conference in Denver, CO.
|
|
—
|
SeaChange’s Infusion ad insertion software and its recent entry into the direct Over-The-Top (OTT) marketplace provide additional ways for shareholders to win, in our opinion. Infusion is now being deployed by Virgin Media, and SeaChange’s OTT strategy was validated by its high profile win with BBC.
|
|
2
|
|
—
|
Cisco acquired NDS in 2012 for 5x revenue, and it acquired single point solution company BNI Video in 2011 for an estimated 10x revenue. While not suggesting SeaChange will warrant these multiples in a transaction, it is clear to us that the current stock market valuation at less than 1x enterprise value/revenue represents significant value. We believe that SeaChange is sitting in front of continued cable vendor consolidation as hardware-centric companies are increasingly challenged to differentiate themselves with software offerings.
|
|
—
|
Finally, recent revenue declines are unrelated to next-generation software products, but rather have been due to the expected obsolescence of legacy software products, principally Axiom. Legacy product revenue will be down to just 10% of total revenue at the end of this year. The bottoming out of legacy software declines presents a unique opportunity to acquire stock at current prices.
|